Wrenfield Profit Bridge
Calder & Finch · Associate Consultant · Early case round · client: Wrenfield Home · due 2:00 PM (simulated)
Generated by claude-opus-5 from Calder & Finch's context (6 requirements), based on the built-in case. The case's numbers, exhibits and answer key are kept from the base; wording, people and expectations are tailored.
Manager kickoff (Maya Okafor)
You're on Wrenfield Home. Revenue went $400M to $450M - up 12.5% - and operating profit fell $40M to $27M. I need one page by 2:00 PM for the 2:30 steering prep with Helen. Good looks like: one headline answer, then the drivers of the gap in order of size, each tied to a line in the close pack, then what we recommend. Every number gets a second check and you can say where it came from. AI assistant is fine for leads and drafting - treat its output as a lead, not a source, and check it against the exhibits. You own what you hand in. Questions to me, not around me.
Company expectations woven in
- • Every number you put in front of Wrenfield gets a second check against the close pack, and you can say out loud where it came from.
- • Use the AI assistant for leads and drafting if you want, but treat its output as a lead, not a source - check each figure against the client's exhibits and leave the check visible.
- • First page is the answer: one headline, then the drivers in order of size. If a client view doesn't match the evidence, push back with the evidence rather than agreeing to keep the meeting smooth.
Planted AI error
Assistant's prepared answer: “The main driver is store rent. Wrenfield's rent rose about 20% after lease renewals (≈ +$6M a year), which more than explains the squeeze; revenue growth couldn't keep up with fixed-cost growth. [Source: Real-estate dashboard, FY24 Q4]”
Contradicted by Exhibit 4: Operating expenses ($M): Store rent 30 → 31
Pressure beat
“I don't need the deck. Yes or no: is it rent? Give me the one-liner I can take to the board on Friday and I'll stop bothering you.”
Manager challenge
“Before you finalise: Helen says free shipping is locked in with a marketing partner until Q3, and merchandising insists on at least a 4-week Spring Sale next year. So the two obvious levers are partly off the table. What exactly do you recommend inside that constraint, and roughly how much of the profit gap does it close?”
Constraint the live manager must introduce: Helen says free shipping is locked in with a marketing partner until Q3, and merchandising insists on at least a 4-week Spring Sale next year.
People (5)
Maya Okafor · Engagement Manager, Retail Strategy, Calder & Finch
Runs the day-to-day Wrenfield case team and owns what goes in front of the client CFO.
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about deadline, timing or what the deliverable should contain
Tom Becker · Head of Store Operations, Wrenfield Home
Runs all 50 Wrenfield stores and works hand in hand with merchandising on the promo calendar.
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about promotions, the Spring Sale, discounts or markdowns
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about stores, rent, leases or store traffic
Sam Ortiz · Finance Analyst, Wrenfield Home
Built the FY26 close pack and the operating expense exhibit the team is working from.
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about the G&A line, the Q3 adjustment, one-off items, write-offs or reclassifications
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about shipping, fulfillment or online order economics
Leo Park · Research Analyst, Retail Strategy, Calder & Finch
Loaded this morning's Wrenfield exhibits into the Exhibits app for the team.
Wrong belief: Believes rent rose about 20% because of the real-estate dashboard.
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about where the 20% rent figure came from, its source or how fresh it is
Helen Ward · Chief Financial Officer, Wrenfield Home
Client CFO with a board meeting Friday and the steering prep at 2:30 PM today.
Wrong belief: Believes rising rent is the problem because landlords 'hiked us'.
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about free shipping commitments or whether free shipping can change
- • Private fact, shared only if asked about the board meeting, steering call or real deadline
Exhibits (5)
Exhibit 1: P&L summary ($M)
| Revenue | 400 | 450 | +50 |
| Product cost (COGS) | 240 | 270 | +30 |
| Promotional markdowns | 6 | 24 | +18 |
| Gross profit | 154 | 156 | +2 |
| Operating expenses (see Exhibit 4) | 114 | 129 | +15 |
| Operating profit | 40 | 27 | −13 |
| Operating margin | 10.0% | 6.0% | −4.0 pts |
Exhibit 2: Revenue by channel ($M)
| Stores | 350 | 350 | 40% |
| Online | 50 | 100 | 40% |
| Total | 400 | 450 | |
| Online share of revenue | 12.5% | 22.2% |
Exhibit 3: Spring Sale promotion
| FY25 | 2 weeks | 20% off | 6 |
| FY26 | 6 weeks | 25% off | 24 |
Exhibit 4: Operating expenses ($M)
| Store rent | 30 | 31 | +1 |
| Store labor | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Shipping & fulfillment | 10 | 20 | +10 |
| Marketing, G&A & other | 24 | 28 | +4 |
| Total operating expenses | 114 | 129 | +15 |
Exhibit 5: Store base
| Stores open at year end | 50 | 50 |
| Rent per store ($M) | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| Same-store sales growth | +1% | 0% |
| Lease renewals in year | 3 | 1 (flagship) |
Automated checks
Structure (20/20)
- ✓ Role "manager" is a person in the case
- ✓ Role "pressure" is a person in the case
- ✓ Role "analyst" is a person in the case
- ✓ Role "finance" is a person in the case
- ✓ Role "operations" is a person in the case
- ✓ Deliverable goes to a person in the case
- ✓ Person ids are unique
- ✓ Person names are unique
- ✓ Channels only list people in the case
- ✓ Every inbound message comes from a person in the case
- ✓ Manager's kickoff message arrives at the start
- ✓ Pressure beat message exists
- ✓ At least one supported hypothesis
- ✓ Trap hypothesis exists and is not marked correct
- ✓ Verification exhibit exists
- ✓ Rubric has the 4 dimensions
- ✓ Simulated due time is after the start
- ✓ Assistant has a quick-ask chip for the planted answer
- ✓ Clock: assessment length matches the simulated day
- ✓ Clock: every inbound message arrives before the deadline
Answer-key arithmetic (30/30)
- ✓ fy25: revenue = stores + online
- ✓ fy25: product cost = revenue × (1 − product margin)
- ✓ fy25: gross profit = revenue − product cost − markdowns
- ✓ fy25: opex = rent + labor + shipping + other
- ✓ fy25: operating profit = gross profit − opex
- ✓ fy25: operating margin %
- ✓ fy25: shipping = 20% of online
- ✓ fy25: rent = stores × rent per store
- ✓ fy25: markdowns match the promotion calendar
- ✓ fy26: revenue = stores + online
- ✓ fy26: product cost = revenue × (1 − product margin)
- ✓ fy26: gross profit = revenue − product cost − markdowns
- ✓ fy26: opex = rent + labor + shipping + other
- ✓ fy26: operating profit = gross profit − opex
- ✓ fy26: operating margin %
- ✓ fy26: shipping = 20% of online
- ✓ fy26: rent = stores × rent per store
- ✓ fy26: markdowns match the promotion calendar
- ✓ Bridge: online growth × product margin
- ✓ Bridge: markdowns
- ✓ Bridge: shipping
- ✓ Bridge: one-off
- ✓ Bridge: rent
- ✓ Other-cost change is the one-off
- ✓ Bridge sums to the operating-profit change
- ✓ Answer key: underlying profit excl. one-off
- ✓ P&L exhibit: revenue matches
- ✓ P&L exhibit: operating profit matches
- ✓ Cost exhibit: total opex matches
- ✓ Cost exhibit: shipping matches
Planted AI error (4/4)
- ✓ Assistant's prepared answer names the trap ("rent")
- ✓ Exhibit row "Store rent" holds the true values (30 → 31)
- ✓ The exhibit contradicts the assistant's figure (assistant says ~20%, exhibit shows 3.3%)
- ✓ The trap item is a minor driver in the bridge
Reveal paths for private facts (13/13)
- ✓ Maya Okafor → em_due: shared when asked about deadline, timing or what the deliverable should contain
- ✓ Tom Becker → ops_promo: shared when asked about promotions, the Spring Sale, discounts or markdowns
- ✓ Tom Becker → ops_stores: shared when asked about stores, rent, leases or store traffic
- ✓ Sam Ortiz → fin_oneoff: shared when asked about the G&A line, the Q3 adjustment, one-off items, write-offs or reclassifications
- ✓ Sam Ortiz → fin_ship: shared when asked about shipping, fulfillment or online order economics
- ✓ Leo Park → an_stale: shared when asked about where the 20% rent figure came from, its source or how fresh it is
- ✓ Helen Ward → cfo_ship: shared when asked about free shipping commitments or whether free shipping can change
- ✓ Helen Ward → cfo_deadline: shared when asked about the board meeting, steering call or real deadline
- ✓ Scored fact "fin_oneoff" is held by someone
- ✓ Scored fact "an_stale" is held by someone
- ✓ Scored fact "ops_promo" is held by someone
- ✓ Scored fact "fin_ship" is held by someone
- ✓ Scored fact "cfo_ship" is held by someone